Data is king, and here are the best picks from the NFL betting model for Week 7 of the NFL season. Let’s explore. All lines come from Oddsjam, and our specific picks are based off of Fanduel Sportsbook lines.

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Las Vegas Raiders (-3) @ Chicago Bears (Vegas Total: 37.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

  • Model Expected Score: Las Vegas Raiders 22.5 – Chicago Bears 17.0
  • O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 5
  • Spread Pick: LV -3 | Model Rank: 4
  • Moneyline Pick: Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders, with their dynamic offense, head to Chicago in what promises to be a litmus test for both teams. The Bears, reeling from offensive struggles, will rely heavily on their defense to contain the Raiders’ aerial attack. Quarterback protection emerges as a critical factor for Chicago, as Las Vegas is known for aggressive blitz schemes. This game could hinge on the Bears’ ability to establish a running game, control the clock, and keep the Raiders’ offense off the field.

Cleveland Browns (-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (Vegas Total: 39.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

  • Model Expected Score: Cleveland Browns 22.0 – Indianapolis Colts 18.0
  • O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 7
  • Spread Pick: CLE -2 | Model Rank: 5
  • Moneyline Pick: Cleveland Browns

A defensive juggernaut in their recent outing, the Browns will challenge a Colts team that appeared unsteady with their quarterback play. Indianapolis needs a strategic rethink, possibly involving a stronger running game to alleviate pressure on their QB. Cleveland’s pass defense will look to capitalize on any errant throws, making discipline and execution paramount for the Colts. Special teams and turnover margins may also have game-altering implications.

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Buffalo Bills (-9) @ New England Patriots (Vegas Total: 41.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

  • Model Expected Score: Buffalo Bills 30.5 – New England Patriots 15.0
  • O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 1
  • Spread Pick: BUF -9 | Model Rank: 1
  • Moneyline Pick: Buffalo Bills

This storied rivalry takes a new turn, with both teams looking to assert divisional dominance. The Patriots’ defensive scheming will be crucial in neutralizing the Bills’ high-octane offense. Buffalo, known for aggressive play-calling, might employ a mix of deep passes and strategic runs to keep New England guessing. Coaching strategies, particularly in-game adjustments, will be under the spotlight as these divisional foes vie for supremacy.

Washington Commanders (-2) @ New York Giants (Vegas Total: 39.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

  • Model Expected Score: Washington Commanders 21.5 – New York Giants 19.0
  • O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 7
  • Spread Pick: WAS -2 | Model Rank: 10
  • Moneyline Pick: Washington Commanders

Washington heads to the Meadowlands after capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes in Week 6. Their defense, opportunistic yet unrelenting, will probe for weaknesses in the Giants’ offensive armor. New York, meanwhile, must demonstrate a balanced attack to prevent Washington from honing in on their passing game. Time of possession could play a significant role, with both teams seeking to establish a rhythm and control the game’s tempo.

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Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) (Vegas Total: 42.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

  • Model Expected Score: Detroit Lions 19.5 – Baltimore Ravens 22.5
  • O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 12
  • Spread Pick: DET +3 | Model Rank: 13
  • Moneyline Pick: Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens, despite their victory, enter Week 7 needing to address red-zone inefficiencies. Facing the Lions, they’ll seek to exploit Detroit’s defensive lapses, potentially through a diverse running attack. The Lions, meanwhile, will need their defensive front to step up and disrupt Baltimore’s backfield dynamics. An intriguing aspect will be the quarterback duel, with both teams’ signal-callers facing pressure to perform.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) (Vegas Total: 38.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

  • Model Expected Score: Atlanta Falcons 17.0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19.5
  • O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 6
  • Spread Pick: ATL +2.5 | Model Rank: 11
  • Moneyline Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta’s underutilization of key playmakers has them on the ropes as they face a formidable Buccaneers squad. Tampa Bay will likely unleash a multifaceted offensive onslaught, testing the Falcons’ defensive resolve. Atlanta must find a way to involve their star players early and often, possibly through creative play-calling. The quarterback matchup also beckons intrigue, with veteran poise clashing with youthful exuberance.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams (-3) (Vegas Total: 43.5) (Sun, 4:05 PM)

  • Model Expected Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 19.0 – Los Angeles Rams 24.5
  • O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 12
  • Spread Pick: LAR -3 | Model Rank: 5
  • Moneyline Pick: Los Angeles Rams

In a battle that could be dictated by trenches warfare, the Steelers’ offensive line will face a stern test against a fearsome Rams’ pass rush. Pittsburgh may resort to quick passes and designed runs to mitigate pressure. The Rams, known for their offensive creativity, will challenge the Steelers’ secondary with diverse formations. Defensive adaptability and offensive efficiency are set to be central themes in this high-stakes encounter.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) (Vegas Total: 45.0) (Sun, 4:05 PM)

  • Model Expected Score: Arizona Cardinals 17.5 – Seattle Seahawks 27.0
  • O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 10
  • Spread Pick: SEA -7.5 | Model Rank: 7
  • Moneyline Pick: Seattle Seahawks

The Cardinals, with their dynamic offense, will test a Seahawks team that has shown red-zone inconsistencies. Seattle’s defense will need to limit big plays, a hallmark of Arizona’s attack. Offensively, the Seahawks must capitalize on scoring opportunities, possibly through a more aggressive approach in enemy territory. The duel between the quarterbacks, both capable of game-changing plays, adds an electrifying layer to this matchup.

Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Denver Broncos (Vegas Total: 45.0) (Sun, 4:25 PM)

  • Model Expected Score: Green Bay Packers 24.0 – Denver Broncos 21.5
  • O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 10
  • Spread Pick: GB -1 | Model Rank: 7
  • Moneyline Pick: Green Bay Packers

Denver’s challenge is two-fold: protect their quarterback and find a way to disrupt Green Bay’s offensive rhythm. The Packers will exploit any defensive gaps and are expected to apply pressure through varied offensive schemes. The Broncos’ secondary is on high alert, as Green Bay’s passing game can swiftly turn the tide. Home-field advantage and altitude could factor into the Broncos’ game plan, particularly in their defensive stamina and special teams play.

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Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) (Vegas Total: 48.5) (Sun, 4:25 PM)

  • Model Expected Score: Los Angeles Chargers 20.0 – Kansas City Chiefs 29.5
  • O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 7
  • Spread Pick: KC -5.5 | Model Rank: 3
  • Moneyline Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

A potential shootout looms as the Chargers take their explosive offense to Kansas City. The Chiefs, fresh from a recovery win, are wary of the Chargers’ big-play ability. Ball security and clock management emerge as critical factors, with both teams boasting opportunistic defenses. The aerial battle between the star quarterbacks will be a marquee attraction, possibly overshadowing strategic ground game exchanges.

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Week 7 of the NFL betting model promises a slew of exciting matchups, with teams looking to either maintain their winning momentum or seeking redemption from their previous losses. The detailed insights from Week 6 provide a glimpse into the potential strategies and player performances that might be pivotal in the upcoming games. From high-scoring affairs to defensive battles, fans can anticipate a thrilling week of football ahead. The matchups will not only test the teams’ resilience and adaptability but also provide a platform for standout players to make their mark. As the season progresses, each game becomes increasingly crucial in shaping the path to the playoffs, amplifying the excitement and stakes of every matchup.

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