Data is king, and here are the best picks from the NFL betting model for Week 6 of the NFL season. Let’s explore. All lines come from Oddsjam, and our specific picks are based off of Fanduel Sportsbook lines.
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Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) @ Tennessee Titans (Vegas Total: 40.5) (Sun, 9:30 AM)
- Model Expected Score: Baltimore Ravens 21.0 – Tennessee Titans 18.0
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 2
- Spread Pick: TEN +4.5 | Model Rank: 6
- Moneyline Pick: Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens, despite their energetic performances, have had moments of inconsistency, which they’ll aim to rectify against the Titans. The Titans, on the other hand, will be looking to capitalize on any energy advantage, especially in the early stages of the game. Both teams have demonstrated the ability to put points on the board, so this could turn into a high-scoring affair if both offenses find their rhythm.
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) (Vegas Total: 42.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Washington Commanders 19.0 – Atlanta Falcons 24.0
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 9
- Spread Pick: ATL -2.5 | Model Rank: 3
- Moneyline Pick: Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons, despite struggling to move the chains on the ground in previous games, managed to secure a win with a brilliant performance from Desmond Ridder against the Texans. They’ll be looking to carry that momentum against the Commanders. Washington, on the other hand, will need to find answers on both sides of the ball to secure a win on the road.
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Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Chicago Bears (Vegas Total: 44.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Minnesota Vikings 23.5 – Chicago Bears 22.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 2
- Spread Pick: CHI +2.5 | Model Rank: 6
- Moneyline Pick: Minnesota Vikings
The Bears, despite their early-season struggles, managed to dominate the Redskins in a surprising lopsided affair. Justin Fields and D.J. Moore connected for a spectacular performance, which they’ll aim to replicate against the Vikings. Minnesota will need to find a way to slow down this connection and exploit any defensive vulnerabilities the Bears have shown.
Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3) (Vegas Total: 45.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Seattle Seahawks 21.5 – Cincinnati Bengals 23.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 9
- Spread Pick: SEA +3 | Model Rank: 6
- Moneyline Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Both teams will be looking to establish their offensive rhythm early in this matchup. The Seahawks and Bengals have had their moments of brilliance this season, and this game could come down to which team is able to make key defensive stops. Both teams have playmakers on offense that can change the game in a single play.
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San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) @ Cleveland Browns (Vegas Total: 37.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: San Francisco 49ers 22.5 – Cleveland Browns 15.0
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 14
- Spread Pick: SF -5.5 | Model Rank: 4
- Moneyline Pick: San Francisco 49ers
This matchup will likely hinge on which team is able to establish their offensive identity early in the game. Both the 49ers and Browns have demonstrated the ability to put together sustained drives, and it will be crucial for both defenses to find ways to create turnovers and get off the field on third down.
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) @ Houston Texans (Vegas Total: 42.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: New Orleans Saints 21.5 – Houston Texans 19.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 2
- Spread Pick: NO -1.5 | Model Rank: 13
- Moneyline Pick: New Orleans Saints
The Saints, with Derek Carr steering the ship, managed to dominate the Patriots in their previous game, even amidst some missteps. They’ll be looking to carry that momentum into their matchup against the Texans. Houston, conversely, will need to devise a strategy to slow down the Saints’ offensive weapons and create some offensive momentum of their own to keep pace.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4) (Vegas Total: 45.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Indianapolis Colts 21.0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 6
- Spread Pick: IND +4 | Model Rank: 4
- Moneyline Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts, despite losing Anthony Richardson to a shoulder injury, managed to secure a win with Gardner Minshew stepping up against the Titans. They’ll be looking to continue that momentum against the Jaguars. Jacksonville, despite their energy, will need to find a way to slow down the Colts’ offensive weapons and establish their own offensive rhythm.
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (-13.5) (Vegas Total: 48.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Carolina Panthers 17.0 – Miami Dolphins 31.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 14
- Spread Pick: MIA -13.5 | Model Rank: 11
- Moneyline Pick: Miami Dolphins
The Panthers, despite some offensive struggles, will be looking to bounce back against the Dolphins. Miami, despite making numerous mistakes against the Giants, managed to secure a win and will be looking to carry that momentum into this matchup. Both teams will need to find consistency on offense to secure a win in this matchup.
Detroit Lions (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Vegas Total: 43.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Detroit Lions 24.0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 1
- Spread Pick: TB +3 | Model Rank: 11
- Moneyline Pick: Detroit Lions
The Lions, despite missing Amon-Ra St. Brown, managed to secure a dominant win against the Panthers. They’ll be looking to carry that momentum into their matchup against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay, with their potent offense, will be looking to exploit any defensive vulnerabilities the Lions have shown.
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New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3) (Vegas Total: 41.5) (Sun, 4:05 PM)
- Model Expected Score: New England Patriots 17.0 – Las Vegas Raiders 23.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 6
- Spread Pick: LV -3 | Model Rank: 2
- Moneyline Pick: Las Vegas Raiders
The Patriots, after a dismal performance and shutout loss to the Saints, will be looking to bounce back against the Raiders. The Raiders, with their dynamic offense, will be looking to exploit the Patriots’ defensive vulnerabilities and establish their offensive rhythm early in the game.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ New York Jets (Vegas Total: 41.0) (Sun, 4:25 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Philadelphia Eagles 24.5 – New York Jets 17.0
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 9
- Spread Pick: PHI -7 | Model Rank: 13
- Moneyline Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles, with Jalen Hurts showing his dual-threat capability, managed to secure a win against the Rams and will be looking to carry that momentum into their matchup against the Jets. The Jets will need to find a way to slow down Hurts and establish their own offensive rhythm to keep this game competitive.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) (Vegas Total: 48.5) (Sun, 4:25 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Arizona Cardinals 19.5 – Los Angeles Rams 30.0
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 6
- Spread Pick: LAR -6.5 | Model Rank: 1
- Moneyline Pick: Los Angeles Rams
Both the Cardinals and Rams have shown the ability to put points on the board, and this matchup could turn into a high-scoring affair. Both teams will be looking to make a statement in this divisional clash, and it will be crucial for both defenses to make key stops and create turnovers.
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Conclusion
Week 6 of the NFL betting model promises a slew of exciting matchups, with teams looking to either maintain their winning momentum or seeking redemption from their previous losses. The detailed insights from Week 5 provide a glimpse into the potential strategies and player performances that might be pivotal in the upcoming games. From high-scoring affairs to defensive battles, fans can anticipate a thrilling week of football ahead. The matchups will not only test the teams’ resilience and adaptability but also provide a platform for standout players to make their mark. As the season progresses, each game becomes increasingly crucial in shaping the path to the playoffs, amplifying the excitement and stakes of every matchup.
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