Data is king, and here are the best picks from the NFL betting model for Week 5 of the NFL season. Let’s explore. All lines come from Oddsjam, and our specific picks are based off of Fanduel Sportsbook lines.
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (-5.5) (Vegas Total: 48.0) (Sun, 9:30 AM)
- Model Expected Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 19.5 – Buffalo Bills 28.0
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 11
- Spread Pick: BUF -5.5 | Model Rank: 4
- Moneyline Pick: Buffalo Bills
The Jacksonville Jaguars secured a solid win against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4, finishing the game 23-7. The defensive spotlight was on Darious Williams, who not only snagged a pick-six but also maintained stringent coverage throughout the game. The Buffalo Bills dominated the Miami Dolphins with a whopping score of 48-20. DaQuan Jones was a standout on the Bills’ defense, generating significant pressure and securing a sack. Both teams are coming into Week 5 with victories, but the Bills, with their high-scoring offense, might pose a serious threat to the Jaguars.
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons (-2) (Vegas Total: 41.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Houston Texans 22.5 – Atlanta Falcons 21.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 3
- Spread Pick: HOU +2 | Model Rank: 3
- Moneyline Pick: Houston Texans
The Houston Texans showcased a stellar defensive performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4, holding them to a mere 6 points and securing a 30-6 victory. The Texans’ defense, especially Jonathan Greenard, who recorded two sacks, will be crucial in their matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons, coming off a 7-23 loss against the Jaguars, will be looking to bounce back. The Falcons will need to significantly step up their game to counter the Texans’ formidable defense and secure a win in Week 5.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (Vegas Total: 43.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Tennessee Titans 21.5 – Indianapolis Colts 20.0
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 5
- Spread Pick: TEN -1.5 | Model Rank: 13
- Moneyline Pick: Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans demonstrated their prowess with a 27-3 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4, though detailed insights into their performance are not available. The Indianapolis Colts experienced a close defeat against the Los Angeles Rams, ending the game 23-29. Rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua made a significant impact, breaking a record for most receptions (31) in a player’s first four NFL games and scoring a walk-off win touchdown in overtime. The Titans will need to keep an eye on Nacua in their defensive strategy for Week 5.
Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions (-10) (Vegas Total: 44.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Carolina Panthers 16.5 – Detroit Lions 29.0
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 8
- Spread Pick: DET -10 | Model Rank: 6
- Moneyline Pick: Detroit Lions
The Carolina Panthers faced a defeat against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4, with a final score of 13-21. Despite interceptions by Sam Franklin Jr. and Kamu Gruiger-Hill, the Panthers couldn’t secure a win. The Detroit Lions, however, secured a 34-20 victory over the Green Bay Packers, with David Montgomery making a notable return from injury, scoring three rushing touchdowns, and amassing 141 all-purpose yards. The Panthers will need to fortify their defense to counter the Lions’ potent offense in Week 5.
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (-11) (Vegas Total: 48.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: New York Giants 22.0 – Miami Dolphins 31.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 1
- Spread Pick: NYG +11 | Model Rank: 6
- Moneyline Pick: Miami Dolphins
The New York Giants will be playing on Monday Night Football in Week 4, so their recent performance will be crucial to analyze for their Week 5 matchup. The Miami Dolphins, after a heavy 20-48 defeat against the Buffalo Bills, will be eager to make a comeback. The Giants will need to analyze the Dolphins’ weaknesses from Week 4 and strategize accordingly to secure a win in their matchup.
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (-1) (Vegas Total: 40.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: New Orleans Saints 18.5 – New England Patriots 21.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 14
- Spread Pick: NE -1 | Model Rank: 6
- Moneyline Pick: New England Patriots
The New Orleans Saints faced a tough loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ending the game 9-26. The Saints opted to start Derek Carr despite an AC sprain in his shoulder, which might have impacted their offensive capabilities. The New England Patriots, on the other hand, experienced a brutal defeat against the Dallas Cowboys, with a final score of 3-38. The Patriots will need to significantly bolster their defense, which allowed a staggering 38 points in Week 4, to stand a chance against the Saints in Week 5.
Baltimore Ravens (-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Vegas Total: 38.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Baltimore Ravens 21.5 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 8
- Spread Pick: BAL -4 | Model Rank: 6
- Moneyline Pick: Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens showcased a dominant performance against the Cleveland Browns, securing a 28-3 victory. Lamar Jackson was efficient with 187 passing yards and two passing touchdowns, also adding 27 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The Pittsburgh Steelers, however, were stifled by the Houston Texans, ending the game with a 6-30 score. The Steelers will need to significantly enhance their offensive and defensive strategies to contend with the high-flying Ravens in Week 5.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (Vegas Total: 44.5) (Sun, 4:05 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Cincinnati Bengals 19.0 – Arizona Cardinals 22.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 3
- Spread Pick: ARI +3 | Model Rank: 1
- Moneyline Pick: Arizona Cardinals
The Cincinnati Bengals faced a tough loss against the Tennessee Titans, with a final score of 3-27. The detailed performance of the Bengals in Week 4 is not available, but they will be looking to bounce back in Week 5. The Arizona Cardinals, despite a strong performance from Josh Dobbs and Marquise Brown, were defeated by the San Francisco 49ers, 16-35. Both teams will be eager to rebound from their respective losses, making this matchup an interesting one to watch.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (Vegas Total: 50.5) (Sun, 4:05 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Philadelphia Eagles 27.5 – Los Angeles Rams 21.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 5
- Spread Pick: PHI -4.5 | Model Rank: 10
- Moneyline Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles secured a close 34-31 victory against the Washington Commanders in Week 4. Jalen Hurts threw for 311 yards and two touchdowns, also contributing 34 rushing yards. The Los Angeles Rams won a close game against the Indianapolis Colts, finishing 29-23. Rookie WR Puka Nacua continued his impressive start, breaking a record for most receptions in a player’s first four NFL games and scoring a crucial overtime touchdown. Both teams coming off wins, this matchup will be crucial to maintaining their momentum.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-1.5) (Vegas Total: 43.5) (Sun, 4:25 PM)
- Model Expected Score: New York Jets 23.0 – Denver Broncos 24.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 2
- Spread Pick: NYJ +1.5 | Model Rank: 14
- Moneyline Pick: Denver Broncos
The New York Jets faced a close defeat against the Kansas City Chiefs, ending the game 20-23. Rookie offensive lineman Joe Tippmann showed promise, earning a commendable pass-blocking grade. The Denver Broncos secured a narrow 31-28 victory against the Chicago Bears. The detailed performance of the Broncos in Week 4 is not available, but they will be looking to build on their victory in the upcoming matchup against the Jets.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (Vegas Total: 53.0) (Sun, 4:25 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Kansas City Chiefs 29.5 – Minnesota Vikings 22.0
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 5
- Spread Pick: KC -4.5 | Model Rank: 2
- Moneyline Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs secured a close 23-20 victory against the New York Jets in Week 4. The detailed performance of the Chiefs is not available, but they will be looking to build on their win. The Minnesota Vikings defeated the Carolina Panthers 21-13, with the defense, especially Harrison Smith, playing a pivotal role by securing three sacks, two tackles for loss, and a forced fumble. This matchup will be a test for both teams’ defenses against potent offenses.
Week 5 of the NFL betting model promises a slew of exciting matchups, with teams looking to either maintain their winning momentum or seeking redemption from their previous losses. The detailed insights from Week 4 provide a glimpse into the potential strategies and player performances that might be pivotal in the upcoming games. From high-scoring affairs to defensive battles, fans can anticipate a thrilling week of football ahead. The matchups will not only test the teams’ resilience and adaptability but also provide a platform for standout players to make their mark. As the season progresses, each game becomes increasingly crucial in shaping the path to the playoffs, amplifying the excitement and stakes of every matchup.
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