Data is king, and here are the best picks from the NFL betting model for Week 4 of the NFL season. Let’s explore. All lines come from our partner Oddsjam, and our specific picks are based off of Fanduel Sportsbook lines.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) @ New York Jets (Vegas Total: 42.5) (Sun, 8:20 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Kansas City Chiefs 26.0 – New York Jets 15.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 12
- Spread Pick: KC -9.5 | Model Rank: 9
- Moneyline Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a dominant 41-10 victory over the Chicago Bears. The Chiefs’ offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, showcased their firepower with second-round wide receiver Rashee Rice pulling in five of seven targets for 59 yards. The Chiefs’ defense, however, will need to be on high alert against the Jets, who despite their struggles in Week 3, have the potential to be explosive.
On the other side, the New York Jets had a tough outing against the New England Patriots, losing 15-10. The Jets’ offense managed only 171 yards of total offense and averaged a mere 2.8 yards per play. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson led the team with five receptions for 48 yards. The Jets will need to find a way to penetrate the Chiefs’ defense and put up more points on the board. This matchup will test the Jets’ resilience and their ability to bounce back from a tough loss.
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants (-1.5) (Vegas Total: 47.0) (Mon, 8:15 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Seattle Seahawks 22.0 – New York Giants 23.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 11
- Spread Pick: SEA +1.5 | Model Rank: 14
- Moneyline Pick: New York Giants
The Seattle Seahawks secured a 37-27 victory over the Carolina Panthers in Week 3. Their defense managed to put pressure on the Panthers’ QB, Andy Dalton, throughout the game. However, the pass rush, which had been absent in the first two weeks, will need to step up against the Giants, who have shown vulnerability in their offensive line.
The New York Giants, on the other hand, faced a crushing 30-12 defeat against the San Francisco 49ers. Quarterback Daniel Jones struggled, averaging only 4.3 yards per pass attempt, leading to just 137 total passing yards. Without their star running back Saquon Barkley, the Giants managed a mere 29 rushing yards in the game. The Giants’ offense will need to find its rhythm against the Seahawks, and their defense will have to come up with a plan to contain the Seahawks’ dynamic offense.
In conclusion, Week 4 of the NFL season is shaping up to be a thrilling chapter in the unfolding narrative of the league. With teams either looking to maintain their momentum or seeking redemption from previous losses, every matchup holds significant implications. From standout rookies making their mark to seasoned veterans proving their mettle, the gridiron promises intense competition and unforgettable moments. As fans gear up for another week of action-packed football, the ever-evolving dynamics of the NFL remind us of the unpredictability and excitement that keep us coming back for more, week after week.
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