Data is king, and here are the best picks from the NFL betting model for Week 4 of the NFL season. Let’s explore. All lines come from Oddsjam, and our specific picks are based off of Fanduel Sportsbook lines.
You can use our MySpari OddsFinder and shop around for the best odds daily 👇
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) (Vegas Total: 43.0) (Sun, 9:30 AM)
- Model Expected Score: Atlanta Falcons 20.5 – Jacksonville Jaguars 25.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 7
- Spread Pick: JAC -3 | Model Rank: 4
- Moneyline Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Falcons, coming off a disappointing 20-6 loss to the Lions, will be looking to bounce back. Their offense, particularly QB Desmond Ridder, struggled against the Lions’ defense. The Jaguars’ performance from the previous week is not mentioned, but they’ll be looking to exploit the Falcons’ recent weaknesses and capitalize on their home advantage.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-3) (Vegas Total: 53.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Miami Dolphins 29.5 – Buffalo Bills 30.0
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 3
- Spread Pick: MIA +3 | Model Rank: 1
- Moneyline Pick: Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins showcased an explosive offense in their 70-20 victory over the Broncos. Tua Tagovailoa had an exceptional game, finishing 23-of-26 for 309 yards and four touchdowns. On the other hand, the Bills dominated the Commanders with a 37-3 victory. Despite the high score, the Bills’ offense had a modest performance. This matchup promises to be a high-scoring affair.
JOIN NOW and access 12+ cappers, betting models, tools, & more for just $19.99!!!
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) @ Carolina Panthers (Vegas Total: 45.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Minnesota Vikings 27.0 – Carolina Panthers 24.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 2
- Spread Pick: CAR +3.5 | Model Rank: 14
- Moneyline Pick: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings faced a close game against the Chargers, which ended in a 28-24 loss. The game was filled with mistakes from both teams, but the Vikings’ late-game blunder sealed their fate. The Panthers’ performance from the previous week is not mentioned, but they will be looking to take advantage of the Vikings’ recent slip-ups.
Denver Broncos (-3) @ Chicago Bears (Vegas Total: 46.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Denver Broncos 23.0 – Chicago Bears 21.0
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 9
- Spread Pick: CHI +3 | Model Rank: 9
- Moneyline Pick: Denver Broncos
The Broncos were steamrolled by the Dolphins, losing 70-20. Their defense struggled to contain the Dolphins’ explosive offense, and offensively, they couldn’t keep up with Miami’s scoring pace. The Bears’ performance from the previous week is not mentioned, but they will be aiming to capitalize on the Broncos’ recent defensive woes.
Want More than these NFL betting model picks? Daily Picks, Tools, Models, & Discord RIGHT HERE!
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5) (Vegas Total: 41.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Baltimore Ravens 19.0 – Cleveland Browns 20.0
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 9
- Spread Pick: BAL +2.5 | Model Rank: 4
- Moneyline Pick: Cleveland Browns
The Ravens faced a close game against the Colts, which ended in a 22-19 loss. Lamar Jackson had a mixed performance, running 14 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns but fumbling three times. The Browns, on the other hand, had a dominant performance against the Titans, winning 27-3. The Browns’ defense was particularly impressive, limiting the Titans to just three points.
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) (Vegas Total: 47.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Los Angeles Rams 21.0 – Indianapolis Colts 22.0
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 5
- Spread Pick: LAR +1.5 | Model Rank: 9
- Moneyline Pick: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts managed to edge out the Ravens 22-19 in a closely contested match. Turnovers played a significant role in the game’s outcome, with the Ravens making crucial mistakes. Zack Moss was the star for the Colts, rushing for 122 yards on 30 carries and catching two passes, including a touchdown.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Houston Texans (Vegas Total: 42.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 21.5 – Houston Texans 20.0
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 14
- Spread Pick: HOU +3 | Model Rank: 7
- Moneyline Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers managed a close win against the Raiders with a score of 23-18. Steelers cornerback Levi Wallace had two interceptions, but also allowed eight catches for 104 yards and two touchdowns across 13 targets in coverage. The Texans’ performance from the previous week is not mentioned, but they’ll be looking to challenge the Steelers’ defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3) (Vegas Total: 40.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16.0 – New Orleans Saints 20.5
- O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 5
- Spread Pick: NO -3 | Model Rank: 9
- Moneyline Pick: New Orleans Saints
The Packers narrowly defeated the Saints 18-17. Packers quarterback Jordan Love led his team with 259 passing yards, one passing touchdown, one interception, and added 39 yards on the ground with a rushing touchdown. The Buccaneers’ performance from the previous week is not mentioned, but they will be looking to challenge the Saints’ defense.
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans (Vegas Total: 41.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Cincinnati Bengals 22.5 – Tennessee Titans 19.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 14
- Spread Pick: CIN -2.5 | Model Rank: 14
- Moneyline Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
The Browns dominated the Titans, winning 27-3. Cleveland’s defense was the highlight, stifling the Titans’ offense throughout the game. Ryan Tannehill faced constant pressure and was sacked five times. The Bengals’ performance from the previous week is not mentioned, but they’ll be looking to exploit the Titans’ recent struggles.
JOIN NOW and access 12+ cappers, betting models, tools, & more for just $19.99!!!
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8) (Vegas Total: 44.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Washington Commanders 19.0 – Philadelphia Eagles 26.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 12
- Spread Pick: WAS +8 | Model Rank: 9
- Moneyline Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
The Bills crushed the Commanders 37-3. Despite the lopsided score, the Commanders had moments of promise but were plagued by turnovers. The Eagles’ performance from the previous week is not mentioned, but they will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) (Vegas Total: 47.5) (Sun, 4:05 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Las Vegas Raiders 24.5 – Los Angeles Chargers 28.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 4
- Spread Pick: LV +5.5 | Model Rank: 7
- Moneyline Pick: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers managed to pull off a close win against the Vikings with a score of 28-24. Rookie Jordan Addison played 55 snaps on offense for the Chargers, catching six of the seven passes thrown his way for 52 yards. The Raiders, despite their loss to the Steelers, will be looking to bounce back and challenge the Chargers’ defense.
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys (-7) (Vegas Total: 43.5) (Sun, 4:25 PM)
- Model Expected Score: New England Patriots 19.5 – Dallas Cowboys 24.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 14
- Spread Pick: NE +7 | Model Rank: 2
- Moneyline Pick: Dallas Cowboys
The Patriots managed to edge out the Jets 15-10. Bill Belichick’s defense stifled Zach Wilson, who struggled throughout the game. The Cowboys’ performance from the previous week is not mentioned, but they will be looking to challenge the Patriots’ defense.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-14) (Vegas Total: 43.5) (Sun, 4:25 PM)
- Model Expected Score: Arizona Cardinals 14.5 – San Francisco 49ers 31.5
- O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 8
- Spread Pick: SF -14 | Model Rank: 2
- Moneyline Pick: San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers defeated the Giants 30-12. Despite being shorthanded, the Giants were competitive for a significant portion of the game. However, the 49ers’ superior talent and health prevailed. The Cardinals’ performance from the previous week is not mentioned, but they will be aiming to challenge the 49ers’ defense.
Want More than these NFL betting model picks? Daily Picks, Tools, Models, & Discord RIGHT HERE!
Conclusion
In conclusion, as the NFL season progresses, each week brings its own set of challenges, surprises, and storylines. From rookies making their mark to seasoned veterans showcasing their prowess, the league never ceases to captivate its audience. The matchups in Week 4 are a testament to the league’s competitive nature, with each game holding the potential to shape the trajectory of the teams involved. As fans, analysts, and enthusiasts, we can only anticipate the drama, strategy, and sheer athleticism that these games will unfold. The NFL, with its unpredictable nature and unparalleled excitement, continues to solidify its position as America’s favorite pastime. Stay tuned for NFL betting model picks next week!
Use code DONUTS for $19.99 Access to all of this as well as NFL Betting Model Screenshots👇
