NFL Betting Model Week 3 (Main Slate)

Data is king, and here are the best picks from the NFL betting model for Week 3 of the NFL season. Let’s explore. All lines come from Oddsjam, and our specific picks are based off of Fanduel Sportsbook lines. You’ll find similar lines on DraftKings Sportsbook, so always odds shop online!

Tennessee Titans @ (-3.5) Cleveland Browns (Vegas Total: 40.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

Model Expected Score: Tennessee Titans 19.5 – Cleveland Browns 21.5
O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 7
Spread Pick: TEN +3.5 | Model Rank: 1
Moneyline Pick: Cleveland Browns

The Titans narrowly defeated the Chargers 27-24 in Week 2. However, the Chargers’ defense, especially Joey Bosa, managed to sack Tannehill five times. The Titans will be looking to bolster their offensive line against the Browns. Speaking of the Browns, they suffered a close 26-22 loss to the Steelers. Despite their revamped defensive front, the Browns struggled against the run. The game against the Titans will be a test of their defensive capabilities, especially with Derrick Henry in the Titans’ backfield.

Atlanta Falcons @ (-3) Detroit Lions (Vegas Total: 46.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

Model Expected Score: Atlanta Falcons 25.5 – Detroit Lions 27.0
O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 3
Spread Pick: ATL +3 | Model Rank: 1
Moneyline Pick: Detroit Lions

In a nail-biter, the Falcons edged out the Packers 25-24. The Falcons’ defense, with players like A.J. Terrell and Kaden Elliss, made significant plays. They’ll be looking to continue this momentum against the Lions. Detroit, on the other hand, lost 37-31 to the Seahawks, with Geno Smith putting up impressive numbers. The Lions will be aiming to tighten their defense against the Falcons.

New Orleans Saints @ (-2) Green Bay Packers (Vegas Total: 42.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

Model Expected Score: New Orleans Saints 21.0 – Green Bay Packers 22.0
O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 7
Spread Pick: NO +2 | Model Rank: 7
Moneyline Pick: Green Bay Packers

The Saints managed a narrow 20-17 win over the Panthers, with the Panthers’ linebacker Frankie Luvu making significant defensive plays. The Saints will be looking to improve their offensive output against the Packers. Green Bay, having lost to the Falcons, will be aiming to bounce back and secure a win at home.

Houston Texans @ (-9.5) Jacksonville Jaguars (Vegas Total: 44.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

Model Expected Score: Houston Texans 19.0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 27.5
O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 6
Spread Pick: HOU +9.5 | Model Rank: 4
Moneyline Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

The Texans suffered a 31-20 defeat at the hands of the Colts. The Colts’ defense, with players like Dayo Odeyingbo and Kwity Paye, was instrumental in this win. The Texans will be looking to improve their offensive line play against the Jaguars. Jacksonville, having lost 17-9 to the Chiefs, will be aiming to get their first win of the season.

Denver Broncos @ (-6) Miami Dolphins (Vegas Total: 48.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

Model Expected Score: Denver Broncos 19.5 – Miami Dolphins 25.0
O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 4
Spread Pick: DEN +6 | Model Rank: 11
Moneyline Pick: Miami Dolphins

The Broncos, in a close game, lost 35-33 to the Commanders. Rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims showcased his speed and playmaking ability, and the Broncos will be hoping for more of the same against the Dolphins. Miami, on the other hand, defeated the Patriots 24-17, with Tua Tagovailoa putting up impressive numbers. The Dolphins will be looking to continue their winning streak.

(-1) Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings (Vegas Total: 54.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

Model Expected Score: Los Angeles Chargers 27.0 – Minnesota Vikings 28.0
O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 7
Spread Pick: MIN +1 | Model Rank: 1
Moneyline Pick: Minnesota Vikings

As mentioned, the Chargers lost to the Titans, but their defense, especially Joey Bosa, was a highlight. They’ll be aiming to bring the same defensive intensity against the Vikings.

(-3) New England Patriots @ New York Jets (Vegas Total: 36.5) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

Model Expected Score: New England Patriots 19.0 – New York Jets 16.5
O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 7
Spread Pick: NE -3 | Model Rank: 15
Moneyline Pick: New England Patriots

The Patriots suffered a 24-17 loss to the Dolphins, and they’ll be looking to bounce back against the Jets. The Jets, having lost 30-10 to the Cowboys, will be aiming to reduce their turnovers, especially with Zach Wilson throwing three interceptions in the last game.

Indianapolis Colts @ (-7.5) Baltimore Ravens (Vegas Total: 46.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

Model Expected Score: Indianapolis Colts 16.5 – Baltimore Ravens 26.0
O/U Pick: Under | Model Rank: 4
Spread Pick: BAL -7.5 | Model Rank: 4
Moneyline Pick: Baltimore Ravens

The Colts, having defeated the Texans, will be looking to continue their winning ways against the Ravens. Baltimore edged out the Bengals 27-24, with Lamar Jackson showcasing his dual-threat capabilities. This game promises to be a clash of two potent offenses.

(-6.5) Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders (Vegas Total: 44.0) (Sun, 1:00 PM)

Model Expected Score: Buffalo Bills 25.5 – Washington Commanders 19.0
O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 13
Spread Pick: BUF -6.5 | Model Rank: 11
Moneyline Pick: Buffalo Bills

The Bills dominated the Raiders 38-10, with Josh Allen putting up impressive numbers. They’ll be looking to continue their offensive onslaught against the Commanders. Washington, having narrowly defeated the Broncos, will be aiming to put up a stout defensive performance against the Bills.

Carolina Panthers @ (-6) Seattle Seahawks (Vegas Total: 42.0) (Sun, 4:05 PM)

Model Expected Score: Carolina Panthers 18.0 – Seattle Seahawks 24.5
O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 13
Spread Pick: SEA -6 | Model Rank: 11
Moneyline Pick: Seattle Seahawks

The Panthers, having lost to the Saints, will be looking to bounce back against the Seahawks. Seattle, with Geno Smith at the helm, defeated the Lions and will be aiming to continue their winning ways.

(-11.5) Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals (Vegas Total: 43.0) (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Model Expected Score: Dallas Cowboys 31.5 – Arizona Cardinals 19.0
O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 1
Spread Pick: DAL -11.5 | Model Rank: 4
Moneyline Pick: Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys dominated the Jets 30-10 and will be looking to continue their impressive form against the Cardinals. Arizona, having lost to the Giants, will be aiming to bounce back at home.

Chicago Bears @ (-12.5) Kansas City Chiefs (Vegas Total: 47.5) (Sun, 4:25 PM)

Model Expected Score: Chicago Bears 20.5 – Kansas City Chiefs 33.5
O/U Pick: Over | Model Rank: 2
Spread Pick: KC -12.5 | Model Rank: 11
Moneyline Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

The Bears lost 27-17 to the Buccaneers, with rookie running back Roschon Johnson being a bright spot. They’ll be looking to improve their offensive output against the Chiefs. Kansas City, having defeated the Jaguars, will be aiming to continue their winning streak.

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Conclusion

In conclusion, as the NFL season progresses, each week brings its own set of challenges, surprises, and storylines. From rookies making their mark to seasoned veterans showcasing their prowess, the league never ceases to captivate its audience. The matchups in Week 3 are a testament to the league’s competitive nature, with each game holding the potential to shape the trajectory of the teams involved. As fans, analysts, and enthusiasts, we can only anticipate the drama, strategy, and sheer athleticism that these games will unfold. The NFL, with its unpredictable nature and unparalleled excitement, continues to solidify its position as America’s favorite pastime. Stay tuned for NFL betting model picks next week!