The main idea behind today’s concept is that many player prop sites cannot change their payouts/odds, there is an opportunity to exploit the value of the payout by sticking to plays that would combine for a lesser payout on normal books. Over time this will then produce a positive return on investment.
This was a guest post by a member “Coxy”, who wanted to share this concept with members.
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We can use Vegas consensus books to find each player’s true implied probability of hitting their over/under (this is how books figure out odds) and then use some basic probabilities to determine the statistical chance of hitting those parlays over the long haul.
We also need to eliminate any bias of individual players. We are treating player names like ID numbers and solely relying on the consensus books to give us our guide.
The Math on Why it Works
We need to find a few variables to determine our range of players. The 1st is the implied improbability of a player hitting their favored stat. We do this by taking the odds on the player’s over/under and converting it to their percentage chance to hit. Below the -145 “Over” equates to a 59.18% chance of hitting while the paired +115 “Under” equates to a 46.51% of hitting.
However, you’ll find that these two values almost always add up to over 100%. This is how the books make money so we need to strip away the juice to find the true chance of these hitting. We can strip out the juice by taking the excess percentage above 100%, dividing that by two, and subtracting that from our original probabilities. This gives us our true implied probability of hitting.
In the above example, the -145/+115 pair now have true 56.34% and 43.66% chances of hitting.
Now that we have the true probability, it’s simple to figure out our probability of these parlays hitting. To calculate any number of events (a single-player prop over) probability of all occurring, we simply multiply the probabilities of each individual event occurring.
Continuing the above example, we know that 2 players with 56.34% chances of hitting their overs will result in both of them hitting simultaneously to be 31.74%; three players to be 17.88%; 4 players to be 10.07%, and 5 players to be 5.67%.
On Underdog, we know the fixed payouts to be 3-1, 6-1, 10-1, and 20-1. These equate to a 33.3% / 16.7% / 10% / 5% Win rate. Therefore, if we stick to players with a probability of 56.34% or greater of hitting their over/under, we will see a positive rate of return with 3/4/5 player contests, but not 2 player contests.
It’s important to note that any players that have a higher probability will equate to a higher rate of return!
The Books it Works on
How to read the following pictures. The 2 leftmost columns are common odds pairings found on consensus books. Then the true probability we find from those odds. Then the contest pay table shows what we can expect to return for every $1 invested using this method.
Underdog / Superdraft :
Players with a line of -140 / +110 (56.34%) or better.
3-Man and 5-Man contests only (4-man is break-even)
Sleeper (Multi-game increased odds only) :
Players with lines of -140 / +105 (54.78%) or better.
All contests are profitable but 2 man and 5 man are the highest.
PrizePicks Powerplays :
You need lines of -150 / +115 (56.74%) or better
This is barely profitable for 4-man plays
PrizePicks Flex Plays :
You need lines of -176 / +132 (60.33%) or better
This is barely profitable for 2-Man plays and great for 5-Man
What’s the Catch?
1) This strategy is relying on Vegas’s lines to be correct.
2) These prop sites don’t list every potential stat and prop like sportsbooks, so you have to dig to come up with a list of plays that match our range of criteria and are available on the apps.
2a) A lot of these odds get pulled pretty quickly once they reach our necessary range.
3) The lines can move, thus changing the play’s implied probability. As any of us who play NBA DFS know, the closer to tip-off the better.
Just because this works in the long term does not mean you can’t go on a huge cooler and lose your stack on back-to-back-to-back-to-back losing nights. Bad luck and bad beats happen and while our bankroll is finite, the app’s bankroll is effectively not; so make sure your unit size is appropriate.
The TL;DR Steps
Step 1) Find players with over/under lines of -140 / +110 or better (Bigger difference between under/over).
Step 2) Compare that list with available props on your app of choice.
Step 3) Mix and Match the appropriate number for Positive Expected Value
Step 4) Do this over the long haul
Step 5) Profit!
This content piece is purely for entertainment value only and Spari LLC does not agree or adhere to any specific strategy listed/not listed in this content piece. Spari LLC does not make any content posted on this website our official opinion or view, we simply are sharing this content piece for entertainment purposes only.