Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 7/3/23. Let’s dive in. All lines are via Oddsjam and specific picks are from Fanduel Sportsbook. Most plays will have similar lines on DraftKings Sportsbook so make sure you odds shop when betting online!
Best MLB Props Pick #1: Bryce Elder o3.5 Strikeouts (-110) Fanduel
Bryce Elder of the Atlanta Braves has been registering a strikeout rate of 23%, which is higher than the 20% average of the Cleveland Indians. With 79 strikeouts in 96 innings over 16 games, Elder averages 4.94 strikeouts per start. As per MLB lines, his expected strikeout total for the upcoming game stands at 5.8. The MLB odds place his strikeout over/under at 3.5 with odds of -110, suggesting a 67% probability that Elder will exceed this total. Our free MLB picks recommend that an over bet on Elder’s strikeouts could be one of the best bets today.
Best MLB Props Pick #2: Tyler Wells o5.5 Strikeouts (-106) Fanduel
Tyler Wells, of the Baltimore Orioles, is also a prominent figure in our MLB picks and parlays. Wells boasts a strikeout rate of 28%, outperforming the 22% average of his opponents, the New York Yankees. With 95 strikeouts in 92.2 innings over 15 games, Wells averages 6.33 strikeouts per start. As per MLB lines, his expected strikeout total for his next game is 6.1. The MLB odds assign his strikeout over/under at 5.5 with odds of -106, indicating a 68% likelihood that Wells will exceed this total. Our MLB expert picks suggest an over bet on Wells’ strikeouts as a compelling choice.
Calculating Potential Strikeouts
You might wonder how we calculate potential strikeouts. First, we analyze the batting order, then estimate potential plate appearances based on the typical duration a pitcher stays in the game. Next, we multiply the expected plate appearances by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. This gives us the potential strikeouts for each batter. Finally, adding these up, we arrive at the total potential strikeouts for the pitcher in the game. Thus, we can make an accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
These free MLB picks for today are perfect for those who want to explore over bets on strikeout totals. Elder and Wells, with their high strikeout percentages and the relatively low average strikeout rates of their opponents, have a solid chance to surpass the betting lines. For today’s games, these pitchers make for excellent considerations in your MLB picks and parlays. Let our MLB expert picks guide your betting decisions. Happy betting!