Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 7/21/23. Let’s dive in. All lines are via Oddsjam and specific picks are from Fanduel Sportsbook. Most plays will have similar lines on DraftKings Sportsbook so make sure you odds shop when betting online!
Best MLB Props Pick #1: Zach Eflin o4.5 Strikeouts (-152) Fanduel
Zach Eflin, currently with the Tampa Bay Rays, boasts a strong strikeout rate of 26% and is slated to compete against the Baltimore Orioles, who have an average strikeout rate of 23%. Over 105.1 innings pitched across 18 games, Eflin has recorded 105 strikeouts, resulting in an average of 5.83 strikeouts per start. Therefore, his potential strikeouts for his forthcoming start rest around 6.9. Eflin’s line is set at 4.5 for his strikeouts with odds at -152, indicating a 65% chance that he will surpass this line. Even though it’s a bit of a gamble, an over bet on Eflin’s strikeouts may be an interesting addition to your MLB expert picks.
Best MLB Props Pick #2: Alex Wood o3.5 Strikeouts (-154) Fanduel
In contrast, Alex Wood of the San Francisco Giants carries a respectable pitcher strikeout rate of 24%, and his next opponent, the Washington Nationals, present an average strikeout rate of 18%. Wood has thrown 53.2 innings over 10 games and has accumulated 50 strikeouts, with an average of 5.00 strikeouts per start. Consequently, Wood’s potential strikeouts for his next game come in at roughly 4.7. The line for his strikeouts is 3.5, with odds at -154, reflecting a 59% probability of Wood beating this line. This could make an over bet on Wood’s strikeouts a worthwhile consideration for your MLB picks today.
Calculating Potential Strikeouts
You might wonder how we calculate potential strikeouts. First, we analyze the batting order, then estimate potential plate appearances based on the typical duration a pitcher stays in the game. Next, we multiply the expected plate appearances by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. This gives us the potential strikeouts for each batter. Finally, adding these up, we arrive at the total potential strikeouts for the pitcher in the game. Thus, we can make an accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
In summary, the expected performance of Zach Eflin and Alex Wood offers compelling betting opportunities. An over bet on their strikeouts might be a smart wager. As always, these free MLB picks are here to aid you in making informed betting choices. Best of luck!