Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 7/20/23. Let’s dive in. All lines are via Oddsjam and specific picks are from Fanduel Sportsbook. Most plays will have similar lines on DraftKings Sportsbook so make sure you odds shop when betting online!
Best MLB Props Pick #1: Michael Kopech o4.5 Strikeouts (+112) Fanduel
Michael Kopech, pitching for the Chicago White Sox, demonstrates an impressive strikeout rate of 31% and is scheduled to face the New York Mets, who have an average strikeout rate of 23%. With 86.2 innings pitched across 17 games, Kopech has tallied 97 strikeouts, translating to an average of 5.71 strikeouts per start. This puts him on track for about 5.3 potential strikeouts in his upcoming start. Kopech’s line is set at 4.5 for his strikeouts with odds at +112, implying a 56% probability that he will exceed this line. While this might seem slightly risky, a bold bettor could consider an over bet on Kopech’s strikeouts for their MLB expert picks.
Best MLB Props Pick #2: Chris Bassitt o4.5 Strikeouts (-150) Fanduel
Similarly, Chris Bassitt from the Toronto Blue Jays holds a respectable pitcher strikeout rate of 24%, and his upcoming opposition, the San Diego Padres, have an average strikeout rate of 22%. Over 115.2 innings pitched in 20 games, Bassitt has accumulated 107 strikeouts, averaging 5.35 strikeouts per start. Hence, Bassitt’s potential strikeouts for his next start sit around 5.2. With a line of 4.5 for his strikeouts and odds of -150, there’s a strong 64% likelihood of Bassitt outperforming this line. This makes an over bet on Bassitt’s strikeouts a worthy consideration for your MLB picks today.
Calculating Potential Strikeouts
You might wonder how we calculate potential strikeouts. First, we analyze the batting order, then estimate potential plate appearances based on the typical duration a pitcher stays in the game. Next, we multiply the expected plate appearances by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. This gives us the potential strikeouts for each batter. Finally, adding these up, we arrive at the total potential strikeouts for the pitcher in the game. Thus, we can make an accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
In conclusion, the performance of Michael Kopech and Chris Bassitt offers promising opportunities for strategic betting. An over bet on their strikeouts could prove to be profitable. As always, these free MLB picks serve to assist you in making informed decisions. Happy betting!