Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 7/18/23. Let’s dive in. All lines are via Oddsjam and specific picks are from Fanduel Sportsbook. Most plays will have similar lines on DraftKings Sportsbook so make sure you odds shop when betting online!
Best MLB Props Pick #1: Michael Grove o3.5 Strikeouts (-122) Fanduel
Michael Grove from the Los Angeles Dodgers has a pitcher strikeout rate of 22%, and he’ll be up against the Baltimore Orioles who have a corresponding average strikeout rate of 23%. Grove has tossed 47 innings in 8 games, achieving 43 strikeouts, giving him an average of 5.38 strikeouts per start. Consequently, Grove is projected to achieve about 7.1 strikeouts in his next outing. With a line set at 3.5 for his strikeouts, and odds standing at -122, there is a strong 65% probability that Grove will surpass this line, making an over bet an appealing selection in your best bets today.
Best MLB Props Pick #2: Tyler Wells o4.5 Strikeouts (-128) Fanduel
Tyler Wells of the Baltimore Orioles boasts an impressive pitcher strikeout rate of 27%, and he’ll be up against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have an average strikeout rate of 23%. Over his 104.2 innings pitched in 17 games, Wells has racked up 103 strikeouts, which translates to an average of 6.06 strikeouts per start. As a result, Wells is expected to reach around 5.9 strikeouts in his forthcoming game. With a line set at 4.5 for his strikeouts and odds at -128, we predict a 68% chance of him exceeding this line, indicating a potential value in an over bet for your MLB expert picks.
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Calculating Potential Strikeouts
You might wonder how we calculate potential strikeouts. First, we analyze the batting order, then estimate potential plate appearances based on the typical duration a pitcher stays in the game. Next, we multiply the expected plate appearances by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. This gives us the potential strikeouts for each batter. Finally, adding these up, we arrive at the total potential strikeouts for the pitcher in the game. Thus, we can make an accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
Conclusion
To sum it up, both Michael Grove and Tyler Wells present promising options for your MLB picks due to their impressive strikeout rates and favorable odds. An over bet on their strikeouts could provide an edge in your betting strategy. As always, these free MLB picks are intended to assist you in your betting journey. Best of luck with your bets!
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