Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 7/17/23. Let’s dive in. All lines are via Oddsjam and specific picks are from Fanduel Sportsbook. Most plays will have similar lines on DraftKings Sportsbook so make sure you odds shop when betting online!
Best MLB Props Pick #1: Logan Webb o5.5 Strikeouts (-140) Fanduel
First up, Logan Webb of the San Francisco Giants boasts an impressive pitcher strikeout rate of 27%. He will be facing the Cincinnati Reds, a team with an average strikeout rate of 23%. Webb has pitched a whopping 126 innings over 19 games, amassing 127 strikeouts, which translates to a remarkable average of 6.68 strikeouts per start. Given these numbers, Webb is expected to score around 6.6 strikeouts in his forthcoming game. With a strikeout line of 5.5 and odds set at -140, there’s a 74% likelihood of Webb surpassing this line, offering potential value in an over bet for your MLB picks and parlays.
Best MLB Props Pick #2: Dane Dunning o4.5 Strikeouts (-112) Fanduel
On the other hand, Dane Dunning from the Texas Rangers has a slightly lower personal strikeout rate of 17%, but will be playing against the Tampa Bay Rays, who have a high average strikeout rate of 23%. Over his 92 innings pitched across 12 games, Dunning has secured 59 strikeouts, with an average of 4.92 strikeouts per start. Accordingly, Dunning is anticipated to land around 5.6 strikeouts in his upcoming game. The line for Dunning’s strikeouts in his next game is 4.5, with odds at -112. With these figures in mind, we foresee an 85% chance of him exceeding the line, which might make an over bet a promising addition to your MLB picks today.
Calculating Potential Strikeouts
You might wonder how we calculate potential strikeouts. First, we analyze the batting order, then estimate potential plate appearances based on the typical duration a pitcher stays in the game. Next, we multiply the expected plate appearances by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. This gives us the potential strikeouts for each batter. Finally, adding these up, we arrive at the total potential strikeouts for the pitcher in the game. Thus, we can make an accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
In summary, Logan Webb and Dane Dunning can be viable options for your MLB expert picks due to their consistent performances and the favorable MLB lines on offer. Placing an over bet on their strikeouts could enhance your betting strategy. As always, these free MLB picks are designed to provide an edge in your betting endeavors. Best of luck with your bets!