Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 7/15/23. Let’s dive in. All lines are via Oddsjam and specific picks are from Fanduel Sportsbook. Most plays will have similar lines on DraftKings Sportsbook so make sure you odds shop when betting online!
Best MLB Props Pick #1: Braxton Garrett o4.5 Strikeouts (-152) Fanduel
To start with, we’ll focus on Braxton Garrett, a reliable arm from the Miami Marlins. With a noteworthy pitcher strikeout rate of 28%, Garrett will be facing off against the Baltimore Orioles, who have an average strikeout rate of 23%. Over his 92.1 innings pitched across 17 games, Garrett has amassed 101 strikeouts, averaging 5.94 strikeouts per start. As we look ahead to his next game, the projected strikeouts stand at about 6.5. His strikeout line for the upcoming match is set at 4.5, with the odds at -152. Given these metrics, we estimate a 60% probability of Garrett surpassing the line, which suggests that an over bet could be a smart addition to your MLB picks and parlays.
Best MLB Props Pick #2: Tony Gonsolin o4.5 Strikeouts (-132) Fanduel
Following Garrett, let’s turn our spotlight on Tony Gonsolin from the Los Angeles Dodgers. His personal strikeout rate stands at 22%, matching the New York Mets’ team average strikeout rate of 23%. In his 67.2 innings pitched over 13 games, Gonsolin has racked up 54 strikeouts, with a respectable average of 4.15 strikeouts per start. For his next game, the potential strikeouts are approximately 5.4. The line for Gonsolin’s strikeouts in his upcoming game is set at 3.5, with the odds at -132. Based on these MLB odds, we predict a 57% chance of him beating the line, indicating that an over bet might be a wise choice for your MLB picks today.
Calculating Potential Strikeouts
You might wonder how we calculate potential strikeouts. First, we analyze the batting order, then estimate potential plate appearances based on the typical duration a pitcher stays in the game. Next, we multiply the expected plate appearances by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. This gives us the potential strikeouts for each batter. Finally, adding these up, we arrive at the total potential strikeouts for the pitcher in the game. Thus, we can make an accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
In conclusion, considering both Braxton Garrett and Tony Gonsolin for your MLB expert picks could yield fruitful results. Based on their promising stats and the MLB lines provided, placing an over bet on their strikeouts seems like a solid strategy. Keep in mind, these free MLB picks aim to provide you with an edge in your betting strategy. Best of luck with your wagers!