Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 6/30/23. Let’s dive in.

Best MLB Props Pick #1: Alex Cobb o4.5 Strikeouts (-106) Fanduel

Firstly, let’s turn our attention to Alex Cobb. His 24% strikeout rate significantly surpasses the 21% average of his upcoming adversaries, the New York Mets. This season, over the course of 14 games, Cobb has thrown 78.2 innings and accrued 76 strikeouts, which gives him an average of 5.43 strikeouts per start. As he heads into his next game, his projected strikeout total is 6.2. Meanwhile, the betting lines have set his strikeout total at 4.5, with odds standing at -106. Given these odds, the expectation is that there’s a 62% chance he’ll surpass this number. Considering his current strikeout rate and his opponents’ lower average, an over bet on Cobb’s strikeouts could be a profitable venture.

Best MLB Props Pick #2: Justin Steele o4.5 Strikeouts (+108) Fanduel

Next, we’ll assess Justin Steele. Similar to Cobb, Steele’s strikeout rate of 24% is higher than the 20% average of the Cleveland team he’s set to face. Steele has pitched for 79 innings across 14 games, resulting in a total of 70 strikeouts, thereby averaging 5 strikeouts per start. Going into his upcoming game, he is projected to achieve 5.8 strikeouts. The betting line for his strikeout total is set at 4.5, with the odds currently at 108. These odds imply a 63% likelihood that Steele will exceed this number. Given his strong strikeout percentage and his opponents’ average tendencies, an over bet on Steele’s strikeouts could provide a good return.

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Calculating Potential Strikeouts

You might wonder how we calculate potential strikeouts. First, we analyze the batting order, then estimate potential plate appearances based on the typical duration a pitcher stays in the game. Next, we multiply the expected plate appearances by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. This gives us the potential strikeouts for each batter. Finally, adding these up, we arrive at the total potential strikeouts for the pitcher in the game. Thus, we can make an accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.


To sum it all up, both Cobb and Steele present tantalizing prospects for over bets on their strikeout totals. Taking into consideration their solid strikeout percentages and the lower averages of their respective opponents, they are likely to outperform the betting lines. Thus, if you’re scouting for over bets in today’s MLB games, these two pitchers should absolutely be on your radar.

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