Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 6/28/23. Let’s dive in.
Best MLB Props Pick #1: Jaime Barria o3.5 Strikeouts (-134) Fanduel
Jaime Barria currently holds a 24% strikeout rate, just above the 23% average strikeout rate of the batters he’s facing. In his pitching tenure, Barria has thrown 46.1 innings, tallying 40 strikeouts in the four games he started. This performance translates to an average of 10.00 strikeouts per start. When we calculate his potential strikeouts for the forthcoming game against the Chicago White Sox, we get approximately 8.7. Betting lines have set Barria’s strikeouts at 3.5, and with -134 odds, the betting markets indicate that he’s likely to exceed this number.
Best MLB Props Pick #2: Mitch Keller o5.5 Strikeouts (-138) Fanduel
Transitioning to Mitch Keller, he impresses with a remarkable 30% strikeout rate. This rate overshadows the 22% average strikeout rate of his adversaries. Keller has pitched 99 innings over 16 games, amassing 113 strikeouts and averaging 7.06 strikeouts per start. We estimate his potential strikeouts to be around 5.8 in his upcoming game against the San Diego Padres. The betting line sets Keller’s strikeouts at 5.5, and with -138 odds, bettors are leaning towards him surpassing this figure.
Calculating Potential Strikeouts
You might wonder how we calculate potential strikeouts. First, we analyze the batting order, then estimate potential plate appearances based on the typical duration a pitcher stays in the game. Next, we multiply the expected plate appearances by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. This gives us the potential strikeouts for each batter. Finally, adding these up, we arrive at the total potential strikeouts for the pitcher in the game. Thus, we can make an accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
To sum up, Jaime Barria and Mitch Keller could provide great opportunities for profitable strikeout prop bets. Both pitchers boast high strikeout rates and will face off against teams with comparatively lower average strikeout rates. This combination increases the likelihood of them exceeding the betting lines. So, if you’re scouting for enticing prop bets in today’s MLB matchups, these two pitchers warrant your consideration.