Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 6/19/23. Let’s dive in.
Best MLB Props Pick #1: Drew Smyly o3.5 Strikeouts (-166) Fanduel
Now, let’s shift our attention to Drew Smyly of the Chicago Cubs. Smyly’s pitching data shows a strikeout rate of 22%, and he typically faces batters with a 23% strikeout average. From this, he averages 4.64 strikeouts per start. For his upcoming game against the Pittsburgh Pirates, his potential strikeouts are estimated at 6.6. The current betting line for Smyly is 3.5 with odds at -166, suggesting that there is good value in Smyly potentially surpassing this line given his strikeout rate and the Pirates’ tendency to strike out.
Best MLB Props Pick #2: Michael Wacha o4.5 Strikeouts (-128) Fanduel
Similarly, we have Michael Wacha from the San Diego Padres. Wacha has a solid strikeout rate of 25% against batters with a similar average strikeout rate. This leads to an average of 5.31 strikeouts per start for Wacha. In his next match against the San Francisco Giants, he is projected to have around 5.3 strikeouts. The betting line stands at 4.5 with odds of -128 for Wacha. Given his strikeout rate and the Giants’ proclivity to strike out, Wacha has a good chance to surpass this line.
Calculating Potential Strikeouts
You might wonder how we calculate potential strikeouts. First, we analyze the batting order, then estimate potential plate appearances based on the typical duration a pitcher stays in the game. Next, we multiply the expected plate appearances by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. This gives us the potential strikeouts for each batter. Finally, adding these up, we arrive at the total potential strikeouts for the pitcher in the game. Thus, we can make an accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
In conclusion, both Drew Smyly and Michael Wacha could be strong picks for today’s MLB strikeout prop bets. Their personal strikeout rates, when viewed in conjunction with their opponents’ strikeout averages, imply a high probability that both could exceed their respective betting lines. If you’re on the hunt for the next best strikeout bet, Smyly and Wacha may be worth your consideration.