Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 5/17/23. Let’s dive in.
Best MLB Props Pick #1: Drew Smyly o3.5 Strikeouts (-108) Fanduel
Drew Smyly is a strikeout artist. He’s been striking out batters at a 23% rate this season, which is respectable for a starting pitcher. He’s up against the Houston Astros, who have an average strikeout rate of 22%, so he should be able to get his fair share of Ks. Smyly has averaged 4.75 strikeouts per start this season, and projections suggest he’ll get around 5.1 strikeouts in this game. Given his solid performance, there’s a good chance he’ll surpass his 3.5 line at -108 odds.
Best MLB Props Pick #2: Sonny Gray o5.5 Strikeouts (-116) Fanduel
Sonny Gray is another strikeout machine. He’s been striking out batters at a 34% rate this season, which is elite. He’s up against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have an average strikeout rate of 23%, so he should be able to rack up the Ks. Gray has averaged 7.00 strikeouts per start this season, and projections suggest he’ll get around 5.6 strikeouts in this game. Gray’s current form suggests he could very well exceed his 5.5 line at -116 odds.
Calculating Potential Strikeouts
You might wonder how we calculate potential strikeouts. First, we analyze the batting order, then estimate potential plate appearances based on the typical duration a pitcher stays in the game. Next, we multiply the expected plate appearances by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. This gives us the potential strikeouts for each batter. Finally, adding these up, we arrive at the total potential strikeouts for the pitcher in the game. Thus, we can make an accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
In conclusion, Drew Smyly and Sonny Gray are both strong picks for today’s MLB strikeout prop bets. With Smyly’s solid 23% strikeout rate and Gray’s impressive 34% rate, both pitchers are expected to surpass their respective lines of 3.5 at -108 and 5.5 at -116 odds. If you’re seeking high strikeout counts, Smyly and Gray are definitely the pitchers to keep an eye on today.