Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 5/12/23. Let’s dive in.
Best MLB Props Pick #1: Tylor Megill o3.5 Strikeouts (-142) Fanduel
Our first pick is Tylor Megill of the New York Mets. Megill comes with a 20% strikeout rate. He’s up against the Washington Nationals tonight, a team with a 17% average strikeout rate. Averaging 3.86 strikeouts per start, Megill also has a projected 5.3 strikeouts. Given these numbers, he has a good chance of exceeding his 3.5 line at -142 odds.
Best MLB Props Pick #2: Graham Ashcraft o3.5 Strikeouts (-144) Fanduel
Our second pick is Graham Ashcraft from the Cincinnati Reds. Ashcraft has a 21% strikeout rate and is set to face the Miami Marlins tonight. The Marlins’ average strikeout rate stands at 25%. Ashcraft typically records 4.29 strikeouts per start and he has a projected strikeout count of 4.5. Hence, he’s likely to go beyond his 3.5 line at -144 odds.
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Calculating Potential Strikeouts
How do we calculate potential strikeouts? We analyze the batting order first. Then, we estimate potential plate appearances. The pitcher’s usual game duration is taken into account. These expected plate appearances are multiplied by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. Adding up the potential strikeouts for all batters gives us the pitcher’s total potential strikeouts for the game. This method gives us a more accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
As we conclude, keep an eye on Tylor Megill and Graham Ashcraft in tonight’s MLB games. Megill, with a 20% strikeout rate, is set to take on the Nationals, who have an average strikeout rate of 17%. Given these figures, it’s probable that Megill will surpass his 3.5 line at -142 odds. Similarly, Graham Ashcraft is matched up against the Marlins, who have a 25% strikeout rate. This matchup suggests that Ashcraft will exceed his 3.5 line at -144 odds. Both pitchers, therefore, are expected to deliver strong strikeout numbers tonight.