Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 5/11/23. Let’s dive in.
Best MLB Player Props #1: Drew Rasmussen o4.5 Strikeouts (-152) Fanduel
Our first pick brings us to Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays. He boasts a 29% strikeout rate. Tonight, he’s squaring off against the New York Yankees, a team with an average strikeout rate of 22%. Averaging 5.71 strikeouts per start, Rasmussen also has a projected 5.8 strikeouts. Consequently, it seems likely that he will outdo his 4.5 line at -152 odds.
Best MLB Player Props #2: Bailey Ober o4.5 Strikeouts (-134) Fanduel
Next is Bailey Ober from the Minnesota Twins. His strikeout rate is 26%. Tonight, he faces the San Diego Padres. Their average strikeout rate is 23%. Ober’s strikeout average per start is 5.33. His projected strikeouts stand at 5.9. As a result, it’s likely he’ll surpass his 4.5 line at -134 odds.
Want More? Daily Picks, Tools, Models, & Discord RIGHT HERE!
Calculating Potential Strikeouts
How do we calculate potential strikeouts? We analyze the batting order first. Then, we estimate potential plate appearances. The pitcher’s usual game duration is taken into account. These expected plate appearances are multiplied by each batter’s seasonal strikeout percentage. Adding up the potential strikeouts for all batters gives us the pitcher’s total potential strikeouts for the game. This method gives us a more accurate estimate of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
In tonight’s MLB games, keep an eye on Drew Rasmussen and Bailey Ober. Rasmussen has a 29% strikeout rate. He’s facing the Yankees, who have an average strikeout rate of 22%. As a result, he’s likely to exceed his 4.5 line at -152 odds. Similarly, Bailey Ober is up against the Padres. They have a 23% strikeout rate. Given this, Ober is likely to surpass his 4.5 line at -134 odds. Both pitchers are poised to deliver high strikeout numbers tonight.