Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 5/10/23. Let’s dive in.
Best MLB Player Props #1: Merrill Kelly o4.5 Strikeouts (-154) Fanduel
First on our list for tonight’s MLB strikeout prop bets is Merrill Kelly from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kelly has a strikeout percentage of 29% and will be pitching against the Miami Marlins, a team with a 25% average strikeout rate. Averaging 5.71 strikeouts per start and having a potential for 5.8 strikeouts, Kelly stands a good chance of exceeding the over on his 4.5 line at -154 odds.
Best MLB Player Props #2: Lance Lynn o5.5 Strikeouts (-140) Fanduel
The second pitcher on our list is Lance Lynn from the Chicago White Sox. With a strikeout percentage of 31%, Lynn will face the Kansas City Royals, who hold a 25% average strikeout rate. Given that he averages 7.14 strikeouts per start and has a potential for 5.7 strikeouts, Lynn is likely to surpass the over on his 5.5 line at -140 odds.
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Calculating Potential Strikeouts
In order to calculate potential strikeouts, we analyze the batting order, determining potential plate appearances while considering the pitcher’s usual game duration. Next, we multiply expected plate appearances by each batter’s strikeout percentage for the season. Finally, we sum up the potential strikeouts for the entire batting order to obtain the pitcher’s total potential strikeouts for the game. This method allows for a more precise estimation of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.
Tonight, Merrill Kelly and Lance Lynn stand out as top MLB strikeout prop picks. With a strikeout percentage of 29%, Kelly’s matchup against the Marlins, who have a 25% average strikeout rate, makes it likely for him to reach the over on his 4.5 line at -154 odds. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn’s performance against the Royals, who have a 25% average strikeout rate, positions him well to exceed the over on his 5.5 line at -140 odds. These two pitchers are certainly ones to watch as they aim for high strikeout numbers tonight.