Data is king and we’ve identified the Best MLB Player Props 4/21/23. Let’s dive in.

Best MLB Player Props #1: Mitch Keller o5.5 Strikeouts (-128)

Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates is our top pick for the MLB strikeout prop tonight. With a 27% strikeout percentage, he’s up against the Cincinnati Reds, who hold a 26% average strikeout rate. Averaging 6.25 strikeouts per start and having the potential for 8.5 strikeouts, Keller is poised to hit the over on his 5.5 line at -128 odds.

Best MLB Player Props #2: Drew Smyly o4.5 Strikeouts (-152)

Drew Smyly from the Chicago Cubs is another top pick for tonight’s MLB strikeout prop. Holding a 22% strikeout percentage, he faces the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team with a 25% average strikeout rate. Averaging 4.33 strikeouts per start and with the potential for 8.0 strikeouts, Smyly is a strong candidate to surpass the over on his 4.5 line at -152 odds.

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Calculating Potential Strikeouts

To calculate potential strikeouts, we analyze the batting order, determining potential plate appearances while considering the pitcher’s usual game duration. We multiply expected plate appearances by each batter’s strikeout percentage for the season. Finally, we sum up the potential strikeouts for the entire batting order to obtain the pitcher’s total potential strikeouts for the game. This method allows for a more precise estimation of a pitcher’s strikeout potential against a specific lineup.


Mitch Keller and Drew Smyly emerge as top MLB strikeout prop picks tonight. Keller’s impressive strikeout percentage, combined with the Reds’ high average strikeout rate, positions him well to hit the over on his 5.5 line at -128 odds. Likewise, Drew Smyly’s strong performance against the Dodgers’ lineup, with a 25% average strikeout rate, makes him likely to surpass the over on his 4.5 line at -152 odds. Keep an eye on these skilled pitchers as they aim to deliver outstanding strikeout performances tonight.

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